It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
